Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi's power law model suggests Bitcoin could reach $10 million per BTC by 2045. Explore the mathematical approach and predictions.
Renowned physicist Giovanni Santostasi has delved deeper into his groundbreaking 'power law' framework for forecasting Bitcoin prices, projecting an individual BTC value of $10 million by 2045.
The power law, a mathematical correlation where one value is proportionate to a fixed power of another, has been a recurring pattern in various natural phenomena, spanning from earthquake frequencies to stock market dynamics.
Santostasi initially introduced the power law model on the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018. However, it gained renewed attention in January when finance YouTuber Andrei Jeikh discussed it in a video reaching his 2.3 million subscribers.
The physicist disclosed that the model anticipates Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a pinnacle of $210,000 in January 2026, followed by a subsequent dip to as low as $60,000.
During a March 2 conversation with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi emphasized the power law model's ability to offer a more comprehensible and predictable depiction of Bitcoin's price trends over extended periods.
Sharing insights from my 90-minute in-depth discussion with @Giovann35084111. This chart is truly eye-opening. The power law predicts a staggering 64-fold increase in Bitcoin's price over the next 15 years, challenging conventional views. pic.twitter.com/K1RiQSPt1M
Unlike the majority of short-term Bitcoin price charts prevalent in mainstream media, which Santostasi labels as 'messy,' the power law model offers a more accurate perspective of Bitcoin's price dynamics.
“The linear chart that they usually show on TV — the one [Jim] Cramer references — appears chaotic.”
“However, when you take the logarithm of the y-axis, a distinct regularity emerges, presenting a coherent pattern,” he clarified.
Santostasi underscored that, in contrast to the widely criticized stock-to-flow model, the power law operates on a logarithmic scale rather than an exponential one.
This implies that Bitcoin's price isn't required to experience constant growth over time, accommodating significant price fluctuations such as those observed between 2020 and 2023.
In a subsequent post on March 3, Krueger elaborated on further mathematical modeling of the power law applied to Bitcoin, projecting a $100,000 price within the next two years.
Krueger added that if Bitcoin adheres to the power law model, its market capitalization will surpass that of gold by 2033, at which juncture Bitcoin would be valued at $1 million per coin.
Despite the conviction of Santostasi and Krueger in the power law model, skeptics argue that any mathematical model is susceptible to significant errors and may not factor in random events that could profoundly impact prices.